Sub two hours. Can it really be done?

One of the hottest talking points in elite marathon running right now is can a sub two hour marathon be achieved. It’s a question that has got the entire running industry talking. The current world record holder is Dennis Kimetto of Kenya, who on September 28, 2014, at the Berlin Marathon ran a time of 2:02:57. Emphasising how difficult sub two hours is going to be. To go sub two hours would be an unbelievable effort to shave three minutes off the current world record and would give the runner legendary status. We asses whether or not it can happen and if it can happen who could run that time?

Closest so far

In 2016, global sportswear giant Nike ran the breaking2 campaign. This campaign was entirely focussed on providing the perfect environment for an athlete to run a sub two hour marathon. Nike announced that three of the world’s most elite marathon runners Eliud Kipchoge, Zersenay Tadese and Lelisa Desisa had agreed not to compete in the spring marathon season to work with the sports brand in an effort to run a sub two hour marathon. The Breaking2 event took place on May 6, 2017 at the Monza F1 track in Italy. Eliud Kipchoge crossed the finish line first with a time of 2:00:25 after the other runners dropped off after struggling to keep the pace of Kipchoge. Although, this time was more than two minutes faster than the world record the record time does not stand because the race was ran in a controlled environment. These controls included 30 specialized pacers who were used at different parts of the race to help Kipchoge maintain the pace. The pacers also ran in a controlled v formation which shielded Kipchoge from the wind. This does not comply with the official rules of the sport’s governing body, the International Association of Athletics Federations. In addition out in front of the runners was a race car with an electric clock on its roof displaying the time, something experts say significantly sheltered Kipchoge from the wind. Yes, the combination of Nike’s controlled conditions along with the sheer talent of Eliud Kipchoge came very close to a sub two hour time. Although, it raises the question of if they couldn’t in a near perfect controlled environment, will we ever see a sub two hour marathon?

What will it take?

Although, Nike and Kipchoge’s controlled attempt isn’t recognised as an official world record, elements of their attempt will be crucial learning curves in the future. For instance the course was a circuit that didn’t have many corners and was regarded as a very flat course. Therefore, should a sub two hour marathon be achieved, the course needs to suit the runners. Berlin was where the official world record was achieved and looks the most likely route to be able to provide the conditions required to go sub two hours.  With regards to the pace required to go sub two hours, the team of Nike and Kipchoge planned to run a time four minutes and 34 seconds per mile, this is seven seconds a mile quicker than Kimetto achieved at the Berlin marathon in 2014. This is evidently, a tough and gruelling pace that emphasises the size of the task given that the 2016 Olympic champion, Kipchoge could not maintain this pace. In addition, the temperature is going to be important with the believed optimum temperature for marathon running to be at 10’C. Relying on the weather may seem to be a very small requirement for success but it emphasises how important the small margins are and how far sports science has come as we now anticipate what the optimum temperature for marathon running is.

 If so who?

After his attempt in Monza, Kipchoge was quoted in The Guardian saying, “We are going up the tree, I have lifted a branch and I am going on to the next one. This is not the end of the attempt of runners on two hours.” The current Olympic champion is an obvious contender to run a sub two hour marathon although the current world record holder Dennis Kimetto shouldn’t be ruled out if he can remain injury free. There’s also a group of runners who have run under 2 hours and 5 minutes who may also be in contention if they are able to dig deep and find a performance of a lifetime. This group includes names like Bekele, Adola, Tola and Kipsang.

The task to go sub two hours is going to be very difficult at this current moment in time. However, it will be interesting to see what the future holds for marathon running as technology and human capabilities develop. Should a runner achieve this fate of going under two hours legendary status will undoubtedly accompany them and there name will forever be in the record books as the first person who ran a sub two hour marathon.

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